Festival Weather Forecast

Choose the festival town and a day, and the checker scores the weather for 3 hours; check each festival day on its own.

What matters most at a festival

For festivals, rain counts 1.3 times: a 30% chance adds 3.9 points and 50% adds 6.5, which is already high risk. Wind counts 1.2 times: 1.2 points above 15 km/h, 2.4 above 25 km/h and 4.8 above 40 km/h, which matters for tents and stages.

Heat counts at its normal weight (2 points above 32 °C, 4 above 38 °C, 1 below 10 °C and 3 below 5 °C), because you are outside for many hours, and humidity 0.8 times (0.8 above 60%, 1.6 above 80%). Up to 3 is low risk, up to 6 moderate and above 6 high. The checker also compares the nearby days, which helps with a festival of several days.

Worked example: 40% chance of rain, 20 km/h of wind, 27 °C and 60% humidity give 5.2 + 1.2 + 0 + 0 = 6.4 points, a high risk for a festival day. Halve the chance of rain to 20% and the risk falls to 3.8 (moderate).

Driest and wettest festival months in 10 cities

Festival risk for an average day in each month, from the 2006–2025 averages (chance of rain = rainy days divided by 30, typical afternoon high and humidity, no wind).

City	Lowest risk	Highest risk
Lisbon	July · 1.8 (low)	December · 7.2 (high)
Rome	July · 3.9 (moderate)	November · 8.1 (high)
Barcelona	July · 4.4 (moderate)	September · 7.3 (high)
Madrid	September · 2.9 (low)	January · 6 (moderate)
Paris	September · 6.4 (high)	January · 9.5 (high)
London	September · 6.8 (high)	January · 9.2 (high)
Amsterdam	April · 7.6 (high)	November · 10 (high)
Berlin	September · 6.7 (high)	January · 10 (high)
Vienna	February · 5.7 (moderate)	December · 9.4 (high)
New York	November · 4.3 (moderate)	January · 7.7 (high)

The lowest risk is in Lisbon in July (1.8). 2 of 10 cities have at least one low-risk month. With rain counted 1.3 times, a city with frequent showers stays high even in summer.

Festival weather checklist

Check every day of the festival separately.
Above 25 km/h of wind, secure your tent and expect delays on stage.
From about 30% chance of rain, pack boots and a rain poncho.
On hot days look for the coolest window for the main act and drink plenty.

FAQ

How can I check the weather for a festival weekend?

Check each day on its own. The checker scores 3 hours on your chosen day and shows how the nearby days compare, up to 10 days ahead.

What chance of rain means a muddy festival?

The checker cannot measure mud, but from about 30% chance of rain the festival risk is already moderate (3.9 points), and from 50% it is high.

Is wind a problem at festivals?

Strong wind is: for festivals it adds 2.4 points above 25 km/h and 4.8 above 40 km/h, enough to close stages or damage tents.

When is festival season with the best weather?

In our table the driest festival months are the summer months in southern cities such as Lisbon and Madrid; in Amsterdam, Berlin and London the risk stays high in most months because of frequent rain.