Wedding Weather Forecast

Pick your venue and date, and the checker scores the weather for the hours of your ceremony and photos.

What matters most for a wedding

For a wedding, rain counts 1.5 times. Every 10% chance of rain adds 1 point before weighting, so a 30% chance already adds 4.5 points and a 50% chance adds 7.5, which is high risk on its own. Wind counts at its normal weight: 1 point above 15 km/h, 2 above 25 km/h and 4 above 40 km/h, enough to move veils, decorations and a marquee.

Heat and cold count 0.8 times: above 32 °C adds 1.6 points, above 38 °C adds 3.2, below 10 °C adds 0.8 and below 5 °C adds 2.4. Humidity counts 0.6 times: 0.6 points above 60% and 1.2 above 80%. Up to 3 is low risk, up to 6 moderate and above 6 high. The checker scores a 3-hour window and shows the best start time of the day.

Worked example: 20% chance of rain, 18 km/h of wind, 24 °C and 65% humidity give 3 + 1 + 0 + 0.6 = 4.6 points, a moderate risk for a wedding. With a dry forecast and everything else the same, the risk falls to 1.6 (low): rain is the part that decides.

Safest and riskiest months in 10 wedding cities

Wedding risk for an average day in each month, from the 2006–2025 averages (chance of rain = rainy days divided by 30, typical afternoon high and humidity, no wind). On the day itself the checker uses the hourly forecast instead.

City	Lowest risk	Highest risk
Lisbon	July · 1.8 (low)	December · 7.6 (high)
Rome	July · 4.2 (moderate)	November · 8.7 (high)
Barcelona	July · 4.8 (moderate)	September · 8.1 (high)
Madrid	July · 3 (low)	January · 6.2 (high)
Paris	September · 7 (high)	January · 9.9 (high)
London	September · 7.5 (high)	January · 9.6 (high)
Amsterdam	April · 8.4 (high)	January · 10 (high)
Berlin	September · 7.3 (high)	January · 10 (high)
Vienna	February · 5.9 (moderate)	May · 9.3 (high)
New York	November · 4.7 (moderate)	January · 7.5 (high)

The lowest risk is in Lisbon in July (1.8). 2 of 10 cities have at least one low-risk month. Where even the best month stays moderate or high, rain is almost always the reason.

Wedding weather checklist

Check the risk 10 days ahead, then again 3 days before, when the forecast is more reliable.
Set the time to the start of your ceremony, not the whole day.
At moderate risk, confirm a tent or an indoor backup with the venue.
Look at the best window the checker shows and move the photos there if you can.

FAQ

How far ahead can I check the weather for my wedding?

Up to 10 days ahead, because the score needs a real hourly forecast. For dates further away, use the table above or the month page of your city.

What chance of rain is too high for an outdoor wedding?

With rain counted 1.5 times, a 30% chance already gives 4.5 points (moderate) and 50% gives 7.5 (high). From about 30% it is worth having a backup.

Does wind matter for a wedding?

Yes. Wind above 25 km/h adds 2 points and above 40 km/h adds 4, enough to trouble a marquee or decorations.

Which months are safest for a wedding in Europe?

In our table the safest months are the dry summer months in the south, for example in Lisbon and Madrid, while cities such as Amsterdam and Berlin stay high all year because of frequent rain.