Outdoor Event Risk Score
Plan with confidence. We analyze hyper-local weather patterns to evaluate the safety and comfort of your outdoor events.
Plan by use case
- Wedding Weather ForecastPick your venue and date, and the checker scores the weather for the hours of your ceremony and photos.
- Outdoor Concert WeatherChoose the venue, the date and the start time, and the checker scores the weather for 3 hours of the show.
- Marathon Weather ForecastEnter the race city, the date and your start time, and the checker scores the first 3 hours of your run.
- Festival Weather ForecastChoose the festival town and a day, and the checker scores the weather for 3 hours; check each festival day on its own.
- BBQ and Picnic WeatherPick your park or garden and a date, and the checker scores the weather for 3 hours of grilling or picnicking.
How the event risk score works
Choose the type of event, the place and the date, up to 10 days ahead, and if you like a start time. The checker reads the hourly forecast and scores a 3-hour window from 0 to 10. The higher the number, the more the weather could disrupt your event.
Four things add to the risk. Every 10% chance of rain adds 1 point. Wind adds 1 point above 15 km/h, 2 above 25 km/h and 4 above 40 km/h. Temperature adds 1 point below 10 °C, 3 below 5 °C, 2 above 32 °C and 4 above 38 °C. Humidity adds 1 point above 60% and 2 above 80%.
Each event type weighs these differently. For a wedding rain counts 1.5 times, for a marathon heat counts 1.6 times and humidity 1.4 times, and for a concert wind counts 1.5 times. Festivals count rain 1.3 times, and picnics and barbecues 1.4 times. Up to 3 is low risk, up to 6 moderate and above 6 high. The checker also shows the best time window that day and how the nearby days compare.
Example: a wedding in Lisbon
The checker needs a real forecast, so it only works up to 10 days ahead. To show how the score behaves, here is the wedding formula applied to an average day in Lisbon in each month (2006–2025 averages: chance of rain = rainy days divided by 30, the typical afternoon high and humidity, no wind).
| Month | Chance of rain | Average high | Humidity | Wedding risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 41% | 14°C (57°F) | 82% | 7.3 (high) |
| February | 36% | 15°C (58°F) | 79% | 6 (moderate) |
| March | 39% | 17°C (62°F) | 76% | 6.4 (high) |
| April | 40% | 19°C (65°F) | 74% | 6.6 (high) |
| May | 32% | 21°C (70°F) | 72% | 5.4 (moderate) |
| June | 18% | 24°C (76°F) | 71% | 3.3 (moderate) |
| July | 8% | 26°C (80°F) | 69% | 1.8 (low) |
| August | 8% | 27°C (81°F) | 70% | 1.8 (low) |
| September | 23% | 25°C (77°F) | 72% | 4 (moderate) |
| October | 42% | 22°C (71°F) | 77% | 6.9 (high) |
| November | 44% | 17°C (63°F) | 80% | 7.2 (high) |
| December | 43% | 15°C (58°F) | 82% | 7.6 (high) |
July and August come out as low risk (1.8), while December reaches 7.6. Because rain counts 1.5 times for a wedding, a wet month quickly becomes high risk. On the day itself, the hourly forecast for your chosen hours decides.
What people use it for
- Weddings: Check the ceremony and photo hours, and book a tent when the risk is moderate.
- Concerts: Wind counts most for open-air stages and sound.
- Marathons: Heat and humidity count most for runners, so the start time matters.
- Festivals: Check each day of a multi-day festival on its own.
- BBQs and garden parties: Pick "Picnic/BBQ": rain counts 1.4 times and wind 1.2 times.
FAQ
How far ahead can I check the weather for my wedding date?
Up to 10 days ahead, because the score needs a real hourly forecast. For a date further away, the month page of your city shows how often it rains at that time of year.
What is the chance of rain on my event day?
The checker shows the forecast chance of rain for each hour of your event window and adds 1 risk point for every 10%, weighted by the type of event.
What do low, moderate and high risk mean?
Low (0–3): go ahead as planned. Moderate (up to 6): have a backup such as a tent or an indoor option. High (above 6): consider another time or day; the checker suggests better windows.
Why is the risk different for a wedding and a marathon?
Each event weighs the weather differently. Rain matters most at a wedding, while heat and humidity matter most for runners.
What is the best time of day for an outdoor event?
It depends on the forecast. The checker scores every 3-hour window from 6 am and shows the one with the lowest risk.